About This Episode
In this week’s Hurdle Rate, the crew breaks down Strive’s latest 1,355 Bitcoin purchase, Bitcoin’s breakout, and why short-term traders may miss the move. They also discuss how digital credit could reshape the next bull market, why liquidity is the clearest measure of trust, and what Michael Saylor and Warren Buffett teach about building balance-sheet companies. The episode closes on the affordability crisis and why Bitcoin may be the new American dream. Here’s the latest with Matt Cole, Jeff Walton, Ben Werkman, and Tim Kotzman.
In This Episode
- 00:02:40 — Strive’s Balance Sheet Growth
- 00:06:13 — Bitcoin’s Breakout
- 00:08:23 — Warrants and Short-Term Trading
- 00:13:38 — Zoom Out and Stay in the Game
- 00:21:31 — Digital Credit Changes the Bull Run
- 00:23:09 — SATA Volume and 75 Dividends
- 00:26:00 — Liquidity Is Trust
- 00:32:03 — Why Digital Credit Isn’t for Everyone
- 00:37:20 — Building Strategy’s Liquidity Engine
- 00:41:49 — Lessons From Saylor and Buffett
- 00:50:04 — The Return of Balance Sheet Companies
- 00:51:45 — Affordability and Bitcoin
Episode Summary
Key Themes: Strive’s Bitcoin buys; warrants; noise, zooming out and amplified Bitcoin; digital credit in a bull market; liquidity as trust; Strategy’s scale; Berkshire analogy; scarcity.
Strive Reaches 26,355 Bitcoin
Strive purchased 1,355 Bitcoin for approximately $107.7 million at an average price near $79,000, bringing total holdings to 26,355 BTC. Over 25 trading days, Bitcoin holdings increased roughly 30%, while the total balance sheet reached approximately $2.5 billion. Most recent capital came through SATA, with warrant exercises beginning to contribute as well.
Bitcoin Breaks Out
Bitcoin is above $83,000 and reached its highest level since January. Matt said the move fits the macro framework the team has discussed: continued Treasury and Fed intervention, eventual dollar weakness and Bitcoin reclaiming its position as the “fastest horse” vs. gold. He also compared the current period with early spring—warm weather has arrived, but temporary cold days should still be expected.
Long-term Strategy > Daily Noise
ASST didn’t move in lockstep with Bitcoin during the breakout, highlighting the complexity of capital flows in amplified Bitcoin equities. Matt said investors should not expect ASST to behave like a 2x Bitcoin ETF every day. Strive is focused on Bitcoin yield, amplification and liquidity over years, not optimizing short-term price movements.
ASST Warrants & Options
Roughly $700 million of Strive warrants are approaching expiration, while ASST is also carrying substantial short interest and options activity. Matt believes much of the warrant exposure may already be hedged, meaning the psychological effect on short-term traders could exceed the remaining flows. Those technical factors are temporary and do not change the long-term strategy.
Zoom Out
Matt warned that amplified Bitcoin will be extraordinarily difficult to trade successfully. During Strategy’s previous bull market, MSTR rose roughly 40x from its lows but also experienced multiple 40–50% drawdowns. Investors trying to avoid every correction risked missing the largest upside days. The more amplified the exposure, the more important it becomes to size positions so that volatility can be tolerated.
The Bear Market Lowered Strive’s Cost Basis
Ben highlighted what steady execution accomplished during the summer. Strive’s first Bitcoin purchase was around $116,610. It’s overall cost basis fell to approximately $90,610—a reduction of roughly $26,000 per Bitcoin. That required raising and deploying capital while sentiment was weak.
Digital Credit in a Bull Market
Jeff said this Bitcoin cycle may be different because perpetual preferreds now exists at a meaningful scale. Past treasury financing during bull markets relied heavily on convertible bonds, which were episodic and encouraged arbitrage against the common equity. Digital credit investors are more focused on credit quality and income, potentially creating a steadier capital source.
SATA Building a Track Record
SATA’s average daily trading volume increased from roughly $12.5 million in July to about $58 million over the prior ten days, while Strive approaches its 75th consecutive daily dividend payment. Jeff argued that consistent payments, growing liquidity and a longer track record make digital credit more appealing to institutions.
Liquidity Measures Trust
When asked how trust can be measured, Jeff pointed to liquidity. Sustained growth in trading volume shows that investors are increasingly willing to allocate capital to a security and its management team. Ben emphasized that liquidity does not appear simply because a company owns Bitcoin; it requires education, communication and proof that management can steward capital through difficult periods.
Not Everyone Can Issue Digital Credit
Matt cautioned smaller companies against assuming they can launch a preferred and automatically recreate the Strategy or Strive flywheel. Without existing liquidity, a public product can become trapped at a discount and produce a higher cost of capital than private financing. Digital credit could become a trillion-dollar market, but issuers still need a credible path to liquidity.
Strategy’s Scale
Strategy traded roughly $6.9 billion of common stock in one day, compared to about $119 million three years earlier. Ben credited years of investor education and execution for creating that liquidity. Strive is building on Strategy’s lessons while adding its own structures, including daily dividends.
The Berkshire Analogy
The group compared Bitcoin balance sheet companies with Berkshire Hathaway. Buffett and Munger focused on disciplined capital allocation, communication and compounding the balance sheet rather than chasing the highest near-term margins. Matt said that resembles what Strive is trying to build: a strong balance sheet, consistent and transparent communication, and deploying capital aggressively when markets become fearful.
Scarcity Becoming Even More Important
The episode closed on worsening affordability, from housing to energy and everyday goods. Ben argued that those pressures make verifiable scarcity increasingly important as purchasing power erodes. The team sees Bitcoin as both a corporate capital asset and an individual escape hatch from that monetary problem.
Main Takeaway: Strive believes growing trust creates growing liquidity, and growing liquidity gives Bitcoin treasury companies the ability for digital credit, amplified equity and disciplined capital allocation to compound together as Bitcoin enters a potentially larger market cycle.