In Episode 11, True North Episode 11: Discover insights on MicroStrategy’s leverage strategy, Bitcoin accumulation, market catalysts, QQQ index inclusion, and fair value accounting. Key discussion points include “irresponsibly long” explained, qqq index inclusion, upcoming catalysts, fair value accounting, valuation metrics. Market context: MSTR closed at $349.64 with mNAV at ~1.94.
Market Snapshot
- Date: 12/18/24
- MSTR Open/Close: $386.00 / $349.64
- Volume: 24,244,600 shares
- mNAV: ~1.94
- Market Cap: ~$85.19B
- U.S. Market Cap Rank: 112
- BTC Held: 439,000
Chapters
- 00:00:00 — Introduction: Overview of MicroStrategy True North and its goals.
- 00:04:21 — “Irresponsibly Long” Explained: Long-term investment mindset.
- 00:09:01 — QQQ Index Inclusion: Implications for MicroStrategy and Bitcoin.
- 00:11:31 — Upcoming Catalysts: Key events and financial developments.
- 00:13:21 — Fair Value Accounting: Bitcoin adoption by corporations.
- 00:18:40 — Valuation Metrics: Understanding market perception of MSTR.
- 00:23:35 — Key Metrics: Bitcoin yield as a core KPI for MicroStrategy.
- 00:27:43 — Bitcoin Strategy: Accumulation and share value expansion.
- 00:34:35 — Yearly Returns: Zooming out for a bigger picture.
- 00:37:42 — Bitcoin Holdings: Q4 leverage ratio and growth insights.
- 00:42:04 — Capital Planning: Strategic moves toward S&P inclusion.
- 00:46:17 — Bullish Catalysts: SAB121 reapproval and political shifts.
- 00:49:41 — Leverage Myths: Addressing misconceptions on MSTR’s strategy.
- 00:53:21 — Future Funding: Vision for a 2025 capital plan.
- 00:55:32 — Stock Splits: Analysis of past splits and potential future moves.
- 00:57:56 — Ponzi Scheme Narrative: Debunking critics’ arguments.
- 00:59:21 — Convertible Debt: Exploring structured Bitcoin products.
- 01:05:04 — Preferred Stock: Risk-return profiles for investors.
- 01:15:40 — Risk Management: Lessons from option trading.
- 01:23:36 — Asset Updates: Current NAV and Bitcoin multiplier effects.
- 01:34:27 — Corporate Treasuries: Insurance companies and Bitcoin bonds.
- 01:41:38 — Bitcoin-Backed Bonds: Evolution of credit and financial strategies.
- 01:50:07 — Semler Scientific’s Options Entry: Followers evolving their Bitcoin strategies.
- 01:56:00 — Tax Relief: Corporate alternative minimum tax explained.
- 02:02:39 — Critics’ Arguments: Counterpoints to bearish views.
- 02:11:38 — Cost of Capital: Future benefits for MicroStrategy.
Episode Summary
Key Themes: ATM mechanics; managed leverage; Bitcoin per share; convertible debt; preferred equity; digital credit; FASB accounting; institutional credit demand; options discipline.
Pullback Versus Progress
Episode 11 uses a sharp MSTR pullback to distinguish long-term investing from short-term trading. The stock had closed near $349 after several red days, but remained more than double its price six months earlier. The panel argues that shareholders focused only on daily price action were missing the larger transformation: MicroStrategy was using unusually strong trading volume and capital-market demand to acquire Bitcoin at a pace far beyond any prior period.
How the ATM Works
The common-stock ATM is the main source of confusion. Ben explains that banks execute ATM sales gradually through predetermined, volume-sensitive algorithms rather than dumping shares whenever the stock rises. The issuance creates additional selling pressure, but its purpose is to remain largely invisible to the market. Proceeds are then deployed into Bitcoin through similarly controlled purchases. Since the third-quarter earnings call, Bitcoin-per-share accumulation had reportedly run at roughly nine times the pace of earlier accumulation periods.
Equity First, Debt Second
That equity issuance also prepared the balance sheet for more debt. MicroStrategy entered the fourth quarter with approximately 252,000 Bitcoin and had grown to about 439,000, while its liability-to-asset ratio fell from roughly 30% to 16.3%. Equity raised through the ATM added permanent capital and unencumbered Bitcoin, reducing leverage and creating room for future convertible offerings. Lower interest rates further improved the likely terms of those bonds. The panel therefore interprets the sequencing of the $42 billion capital plan—equity first, fixed income second—as deliberate rather than reactive.
The Coca-Cola Comparison
Criticism that MicroStrategy was dangerously leveraged relied partly on impaired accounting values rather than Bitcoin’s market value. Ben estimates that adjusting shareholder equity for the unrecognized Bitcoin appreciation produced a leverage ratio near 0.35, versus roughly 1.53 for Coca-Cola. Additional debt would also arrive with a corresponding Bitcoin asset, so it could not be analyzed as a liability added in isolation. Convertible holders accept capped upside and lower downside in exchange for the bond structure, while common shareholders retain the excess volatility and potential Bitcoin-per-share accretion.
The Preferred Equity Channel
The panel expects preferred equity to become another financing channel. A convertible preferred could pay a dividend, rank above common shares, and eventually convert into equity, opening MicroStrategy’s digital credit products to investors who do not participate in private convertible offerings. Different structures, maturities, coupons, ratings, and conversion terms could allow the company to segment the fixed-income market and reach much larger pools of capital.
The Allianz Signal
Allianz’s reported participation illustrates the opportunity. Insurance companies may receive little or no regulatory capital credit for owning Bitcoin directly, but can receive meaningful credit for holding corporate bonds. MicroStrategy’s converts therefore offer Bitcoin-linked upside inside a familiar, lower-volatility security. Future credit ratings, QQQ inclusion, fair-value earnings, or S&P 500 eligibility could expand demand from insurers and other institutions whose mandates currently exclude unrated debt.
The FASB Threshold
FASB fair-value accounting was expected to begin for MicroStrategy in the first quarter of 2025. Based on the company’s then-current holdings and approximately $500 million of cumulative prior-quarter losses, Jeff calculated that Bitcoin needed to appreciate by only about $1,139 during the quarter to restore positive trailing earnings. That could shift attention from mNAV toward conventional earnings and index eligibility. Still, the panel treats mNAV as a point-in-time sentiment measure rather than management’s core KPI; Bitcoin yield and Bitcoin per share remain the more important metrics.
Leverage Without Exits
The episode also warns against leveraged ETFs and options without predetermined exits and disciplined sizing. A correct long-term thesis can still produce ruin if an investor uses excessive leverage or allows a profitable option to expire worthless.
Main Takeaway: MicroStrategy’s ATM does not weaken the thesis but helps in building permanent capital, lowering leverage, and preparing the company to issue a broader range of Bitcoin-backed digital credit at increasingly institutional scale.