In Episode 3, True North Episode 3: The crew covers post-election impacts, Bitcoin catalysts, Q3 earnings, ETF inclusion, macroeconomic trends, Bitcoin adoption strategies, and future projections for MSTR and… Key discussion points include q3 earnings overview, qqq rank day, etf inclusion, roaring 20s analogy, sab 121. Market context: MSTR closed at $257.81 with mNAV at ~2.74.
Market Snapshot
- Date: 11/6/24
- MSTR Open/Close: $260.00 / $257.81
- Volume: 26,270,400 shares
- mNAV: ~2.74
- Market Cap: ~$52.24B
- U.S. Market Cap Rank: 193
- BTC Held: 252,220
Chapters
- 00:00:00 — Agenda: Catalysts, elections, Bitcoin impact, and valuation updates.
- 00:02:38 — Q3 earnings overview: A record-setting performance.
- 00:08:12 — QQQ rank day: ETF cash flow impacts.
- 00:10:47 — ETF inclusion: Market reactions and implications for MSTR.
- 00:16:57 — Roaring 20s analogy: Recession predictions debunked.
- 00:19:40 — SAB 121: Bitcoin custody and bipartisan support.
- 00:22:23 — US budget: Deficit concerns and money printing.
- 00:29:53 — Elon Musk: Speculations on government efficiency leadership.
- 00:35:54 — Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: US gold reserves discussion.
- 00:43:02 — Bitcoin strategy: CFOs’ fiduciary responsibility.
- 00:45:01 — Saylor’s guide: Implementing Bitcoin on balance sheets.
- 00:57:10 — Wealth advisor insights: Knowledge gaps on Bitcoin.
- 00:59:06 — Industry disruption: Lessons from Blockbuster and Uber.
- 01:02:52 — Digital capital: The transformative potential of Bitcoin.
- 01:05:51 — Projection: Bitcoin price to reach $200k by 2027.
- 01:17:12 — Bitcoin vs. gold: Price parity analysis.
- 01:24:20 — $100k Bitcoin: Market euphoria and its ripple effects.
- 01:31:25 — Next phase of adoption: Collateral usage and global adoption.
Episode Summary
Key Themes: Post-election policy; strategic Bitcoin reserve; SAB 121; monetary expansion; QQQ inclusion; corporate adoption; Bitcoin-per-share yield; mNAV; asset parity.
Post-Election Policy Shift
Episode 3 examines how the 2024 election changed the political and financial backdrop for Bitcoin and MicroStrategy. The immediate benefit was certainty: markets avoided a prolonged contested outcome, while the incoming administration appeared more receptive to Bitcoin, bank custody, domestic energy production, and a possible strategic reserve. The panel nevertheless separates Bitcoin’s long-term trajectory from any single administration. Bitcoin would continue operating regardless of politics, but favorable policy could accelerate adoption inside the United States and make that adoption harder for future governments to reverse.
The SAB 121 Question
SAB 121 is treated as one of the most consequential policy questions. Reversing the accounting barrier would make it easier for large banks to custody Bitcoin and profit from serving institutional clients. That could connect a strategic reserve, corporate treasuries, banks, and capital markets in ways that had previously been constrained. The group also argues that Bitcoin’s growing political constituency and the presence of younger elected officials who personally own it could embed the asset more deeply in the federal bureaucracy.
Strategic Reserve Game Theory
The strategic-reserve discussion ranges from retaining seized Bitcoin to purchasing additional supply, selling part of the government’s gold holdings, or simply creating dollars to acquire Bitcoin. The panel does not claim any particular mechanism is certain. Its broader point is game theory: if rival countries accumulate Bitcoin or use it for settlement, the United States may be compelled to respond to preserve its economic influence. Cheaper domestic energy and expanded mining could also create a de facto national reserve through U.S.-based companies even without direct federal purchases.
The Deficit Backdrop
Fiscal policy remains the underlying monetary catalyst. Grain argues that tax cuts and persistent spending make a balanced budget unrealistic, leaving continued deficits and eventual monetary expansion as the likely path. Even aggressive government-efficiency efforts would struggle to close a deficit measured in trillions. For Bitcoin holders, the election therefore changes the tone of regulation more than the structural driver: a financial system that continues creating currency faster than scarce assets.
Boardroom Career Risk
The panel then turns to corporate adoption. Buying Bitcoin does not require a company to recreate Nvidia, Tesla, or another complex operating business; a treasury can reallocate cash through an established custodian with relatively little additional infrastructure. Yet boards and executives face career risk, conservative shareholder bases, and incentives to preserve wealth rather than outperform. Founder-led companies such as MicroStrategy and Semler Scientific may therefore move faster because management owns meaningful equity and is willing to accept disruption.
Modeling the Capital Plan
Dan’s acquisition model estimates how MicroStrategy’s $21 billion equity and $21 billion convertible-debt plan could affect its Bitcoin holdings. Assuming a 38% Bitcoin compound annual growth rate, evenly distributed financing, a 40% conversion premium, and a constant three-times mNAV, the company could approach 600,000 Bitcoin and roughly $1,400 per share by early 2028. More aggressive mNAV assumptions produced much larger outcomes, including a trillion-dollar market capitalization, while even a cyclical premium still generated substantial Bitcoin-per-share growth.
Yield Beyond Targets
The model’s most important output is not a precise price target but the potential Bitcoin yield. At MicroStrategy’s current scale, equity issuance could increase Bitcoin per share far faster than management’s stated 6%–10% annual target. The panel considers 20% or more plausible if the premium remains elevated and the capital plan proceeds.
Gold Parity Upside
Finally, Jeff uses asset parity with gold to frame the upside. Bitcoin matching gold’s market capitalization implied a price near $900,000, which would place enormous value on MicroStrategy’s holdings before applying any premium for future accumulation or financing capability.
Main Takeaway: A friendlier political environment could accelerate adoption, but MicroStrategy’s larger advantage was its ability to convert persistent monetary expansion, passive demand, and capital-market access into rapidly increasing Bitcoin per share.