In Episode 30, True North episode 30: In this episode the crew dives deep into leverage, MSTR’s balance sheet, BTC-backed yield, and market psychology—plus how treasury companies are evolving and why Bitcoin… Key discussion points include episode 30 agenda, leverage ratio explained, trader psychology, sentiment analysis, trading vs investing. Market context: MSTR closed at $369.03 with mNAV at ~1.85.
Market Snapshot
- Date: 6/18/25
- MSTR Open/Close: $371.43 / $369.03
- Volume: 9,200,500 shares
- mNAV: ~1.85
- Market Cap: ~$103.17B
- U.S. Market Cap Rank: 97
- BTC Held: 592,100
Chapters
- 00:00:00 — Que the music:
- 00:01:12 — Episode 30 agenda:
- 00:05:44 — Leverage ratio explained: debt, equity & BTC collateral
- 00:10:12 — Trader psychology: cost basis bias, tax impact & conviction
- 00:15:09 — Sentiment analysis: zooming out amid noise & opportunities in BTC space
- 00:22:36 — Trading vs investing: understanding the players at the table & OTC tickers
- 00:28:46 — Safe havens & bear markets: strategy resilience & the power of scale
- 00:31:43 — Chanos short analysis: misunderstanding the playbook & over-collateralization 101
- 00:38:18 — Bitcoin as the new risk-free asset: fixed income demand is the signal
- 00:45:13 — Banking of the future: how Strategy’s products are redesigning the future banking system
- 00:47:49 — Evaluating BTC treasury companies: identifying survivors vs hype
- 01:01:51 — Fed, interest rates & impact on BTC/MSTR: how this impacts BTC torque
- 01:06:50 — New investment products: ETFs, diversified exposure & position sizing
- 01:17:20 — $MSTY & $WNTR: what is the craze? Solei competition with MSTY update
- 01:25:35 — Common share ATM: BTC yield using the preferred’s
- 01:27:22 — Valuation of BTC-backed companies:
- 01:29:16 — Q2 countdown: S&P 500 inclusion, bewilderment intensifying and EPS
- 01:37:39 — BTC vs MSTR: collateral, dividends, scale
- 01:45:45 — Zero carry cost: low capex with large appreciation
- 01:48:15 — Tim in Prague: home of the largest castle complex in the world & BTC Prague
- 01:51:00 — Final thoughts: we’re going higher
Episode Summary
Key Themes: Collateral power; balance-sheet strength; investor impatience; preferred financing; digital credit; treasury-company risk; long-term conviction; valuation expansion.
Accumulation Without Dilution
Episode 30 centers on the argument that the market still does not fully understand what Strategy’s Bitcoin accomplishes beyond simply appreciating in price. Jeff begins with the weekly leverage update, noting that Strategy now holds roughly 592,100 Bitcoin after purchasing another 10,100 without using the MSTR common-stock ATM. Instead, the purchase was financed primarily through STRD and smaller preferred-stock issuance. With approximately $62 billion of assets against a much smaller debt and preferred stack, the panel again characterizes Strategy as highly overcollateralized and financially stronger than the common narrative about excessive leverage suggests. More importantly, the ability to keep acquiring Bitcoin without issuing common shares demonstrates that Strategy’s capital-markets toolkit is expanding.
Chasing Squirrels
The group contrasts that progress with increasingly negative investor sentiment. Soleil describes bored investors as “chasing squirrels,” rotating from MSTR into whichever newer Bitcoin treasury company has recently produced the largest gains. Adrian argues that much of this behavior comes from cost-basis frustration and a failure to distinguish investing from trading. Investors who bought near a local high are more likely to abandon the position during sideways periods, often generating taxes and transaction costs before entering a smaller, less liquid, and potentially riskier company. The panel does not argue that every alternative is bad, but repeatedly emphasizes that Strategy’s scale, liquidity, financing access, and proven ability to survive a bear market make it fundamentally different from newer entrants.
Treasury Company Red Flags
That distinction leads into a broader framework for evaluating Bitcoin treasury companies. The panel warns that dozens or hundreds of companies may attempt to imitate Strategy, but not all will have sound structures. Investors should examine whether a company has a viable operating business, sustainable cash inflows, experienced management, lockups on PIPE investors, adequate liquidity, and clear policies governing whether its Bitcoin can be sold, loaned, pledged, or otherwise encumbered. Soleil compares these warning signs to the red flags used when evaluating altcoins: a compelling Bitcoin narrative does not automatically make the surrounding corporate structure safe.
Collateral as Yield
The episode’s central argument is Jeff’s explanation of Bitcoin as collateral. Critics often say that real estate produces yield while Bitcoin does not, but Jeff argues that Strategy is already earning a form of yield from its Bitcoin by using the asset base to support different securities. MSTR common equity, STRD, STRK, STRF, and the convertible bonds represent different risk-and-return tranches backed by the same Bitcoin collateral. Every time Strategy issues a preferred security and uses the proceeds to purchase additional Bitcoin, it is monetizing the strength of its existing balance sheet without selling the underlying asset. This is the foundation of its emerging digital credit model.
The Efficient Bitcoin Bank
In Jeff’s framing, Strategy is already functioning as the Bitcoin bank people expected it to become, but in a more efficient form than a conventional bank. Rather than building branches, hiring thousands of employees, and lending Bitcoin through a heavily regulated banking network, a small capital-markets team can issue billions of dollars of securities backed by transparent, liquid collateral. The preferreds give conservative investors yield and downside protection, while common shareholders retain more of Bitcoin’s upside and volatility. Strategy can therefore refine one pool of Bitcoin into multiple financial products aimed at different buyers.
Beyond Net Asset Value
The panel believes this collateral moat should eventually justify a significant premium over simple net asset value. Strategy can borrow against its Bitcoin, issue new securities against it, and potentially reduce its financing costs as the asset base grows. Adrian extends the concept to individual investors, imagining a future in which Bitcoin and Bitcoin-backed equities become assets that owners borrow against rather than sell, similar to the “buy, borrow, die” approach used by wealthy holders of traditional equities. In that world, the power of Strategy is not merely how much Bitcoin it owns today, but what it can continue building on top of that collateral indefinitely.
Main Takeaway: Strategy’s greatest advantage is not simply owning an enormous amount of Bitcoin, but possessing a growing base of pristine collateral that can support digital credit, finance continued accumulation, and create financial products competitors cannot easily replicate.