The True North crew dives deep into this transformational period. Segments include MSTR valuation, leverage risks, liquidation prefs, and BTC’s future as digital capital.
Market Snapshot
As of 8/13/25:
- Open: $397.73 | Close: $389.90
- Volume: 10,884,940 shares
- mNAV: ~1.62 | Market Cap: ~$111B
- BTC Holdings: 628,946
In This Episode
- 00:01:00 — price action analysis
- 00:02:25 — market vs. earnings
- 00:04:30 — atm trap exposed
- 00:06:16 — what counts as earnings?
- 00:08:51 — nav is king
- 00:11:56 — next BTC supercycle?
- 00:15:13 — preferreds = BTC yield?
- 00:19:14 — will BTC be lent?
- 00:23:34 — how many BTC per share?
- 00:28:00 — MSTR is retooling
- 00:36:55 — 80k tuned in live
- 00:39:04 — Unconferenced 2025
- 00:48:18 — should BTC firms defend the network?
- 00:55:50 — BTC alliance model
- 00:59:45 — get your prefs ready
- 01:03:25 — MSTR valuation logic
- 01:04:50 — leverage risks unpacked
- 01:08:11 — arbing the MSTR ecosystem
- 01:20:30 — short-term vs. long-term leverage
- 01:24:25 — community sentiment split
- 01:29:25 — real-world BTC signal
- 01:33:00 — market manipulation fears
- 01:36:27 — BTC buys as signal
- 01:38:56 — BTC vs. MSTR
- 01:43:15 — Strategy shifts scale
- 01:47:18 — digital asset valuation
- 01:51:35 — common vs. crown jewel
- 01:55:45 — BTC dividend theory
- 01:59:30 — product structure insights
- 02:00:55 — closing vision shared
Episode Summary
Key Themes: All-time highs; ATM debate; market disconnect; preferred scaling; digital empire; dematerialization; conference innovation; business evolution.
Beyond the ATM
Episode 36 opens with Bitcoin at all-time highs, but conversation quickly turns to the question: why is Strategy’s stock not ripping the way many investors expected? Adrian says too many people reduce every disappointing stretch to one explanation — the ATM. He argues if the ATM were really the sole driver, price should have immediately behaved differently once it eased off. Because it has not, investors need to widen their lens and admit there are broader forces at work: shorting, options activity, competing Bitcoin treasury names, sentiment, and the fact that the wider market still may not treat Bitcoin appreciation as “real” business value. Dan partially agrees, adding that the ATM can still be predatory in combination with convert arbitrage.
Valuation Tension
Dan is encouraged by management’s guidance that they would not issue common below certain mNAV thresholds, interpreting that as an internal statement about what Strategy believes its treasury operations are worth. The market may still be confused, but the company itself appears to be signaling that the business is worth more than simple net asset value. Adrian is focused on broader market dynamics and sentiment, while Dan is more focused on how the structure itself shapes volatility. The two views imply Strategy may be underappreciated both because the market still misunderstands the company and because the company’s evolving structure is genuinely hard to price.
What Strategy Must Become
Adrian’s central argument is that Bitcoin yield will inevitably trend down as the company grows and Bitcoin itself appreciates, simply because it becomes harder to keep compounding Bitcoin per share at the same rate on a larger base. The business has to evolve. He thinks the next leg cannot rely only on more of the same — the preferreds will scale, but that alone does not guarantee the kind of runaway multiple some investors still expect. The company may eventually need to monetize its Bitcoin in more ways, diversify its business lines, and scale its core software business more meaningfully to preserve or expand the market’s premium.
Preferreds as Long-Run Engine
Dan pushes back slightly, saying that for now, management has been explicit: the preferreds and digital credit are the chosen vehicle for generating Bitcoin yield, and investors should probably take that at face value for the next several years. The common stock is still largely a bet on the success of those preferred products and on Strategy’s ability to issue large amounts of Bitcoin-backed credit into the future. Adrian says Strategy has effectively become an economy built around Bitcoin, and Dan characterizes it as a new financial layer on top of Bitcoin. The preferreds are the mechanism by which Strategy can convert fiat demand into more Bitcoin accumulation without depending entirely on common equity issuance.
Dematerializing the Conference
The final section turns to Tim Kotzman’s growing conference platform. Tim describes his digital marathon conferences and coming in-person Unconference as attempts to create a new Bitcoin forum: part live media, part educational platform, part interactive town hall. Soleil ties that to Saylor’s theme of dematerialization. Instead of 42 speakers trying to meet 100,000 people one by one in the physical world, a digital conference can collapse all of that time and distance into a scalable format. The team sees this as part of the same broader trend as Bitcoin treasury companies and digital credit.
Main Takeaway: The short-term price action may be frustrating, but the bigger story is that Strategy is maturing from a simple leveraged Bitcoin equity into a broader digital financial ecosystem, with preferreds, digital credit, and new Bitcoin-native platforms all helping to build that digital empire.