In Episode 38, True North Episode 38 - No Days Off Agenda: 1. Research. Key discussion points include macro indicators, spot btc positioning, duration gap, labor market & fed pivot, ai’s attack on jobs. Market context: MSTR closed at $342.06 with mNAV at ~1.56.
Market Snapshot
- Date: 8/27/25
- MSTR Open/Close: $348.68 / $342.06
- Volume: 8,379,611 shares
- mNAV: ~1.56
- Market Cap: ~$97.36B
- U.S. Market Cap Rank: 108
- BTC Held: 632,457
Chapters
- 00:00:00 — Intro: filtering out the noise and providing signal
- 00:03:19 — Macro Indicators: Services PMI ties to BTC moves
- 00:05:42 — Spot BTC Positioning: Low leverage, resilient long-term strategy
- 00:12:25 — Duration gap: what’s the next pref flavor to fill the gap
- 00:14:23 — Labor Market & Fed Pivot: Weak payrolls, yield curve, rate cut setup
- 00:18:55 — AI’s attack on jobs: Bitcoin is the only way to capture the deflationary effects
- 00:22:12 — Inflation Outlook & Fed: Tariffs, base case, policy shift
- 00:25:38 — Bitcoin vs Gold Thesis: BTC outperformance, gold lag on inflation
- 00:30:07 — MNAVs & Fear Index: Sentiment tools, credit signals, BTC risk
- 00:33:17 — Stretch Yield Mechanics: Monthly dividend, par targeting strategy
- 00:37:40 — S&P 500 Inclusion Odds: Market betting, mispriced probabilities
- 00:40:33 — BTC Valuation Frameworks: Miner breakevens, long-dated call logic
- 00:43:46 — MSTR Capital Forecast: Preferreds, ATM issuance, $175B growth thesis
Episode Summary
Key Themes: No days off; macro caution; spot over leverage; preferred mispricing; Stretch stabilization; rate cuts; digital credit conduit; attacking the bond market.
Cautious Macro Read
Episode 38 is a shorter, more stripped-down episode with only Soleil and Dan. The macro section is notably cautious. Dan says that at current levels, spot Bitcoin or effectively spot-like exposure is the best place to be. While the backdrop still looks constructive, this is not a setup like the deep-discount panic moments where aggressive leverage feels obvious. He points to weakening labor data, uncertainty around Fed policy, and the difficulty of reading whether a larger rate cut would be bullish or bearish in the short run. Soleil agrees: if you are just sitting in spot and the market rolls over, you still have flexibility; but if you are overextended with leverage at the wrong part of the cycle, you can get hurt badly.
Strike Looks Undervalued
Dan argues that STRK looks deeply undervalued, because once you separate out the MSTR equity exposure embedded in it, the remaining cash-yield component appears extremely attractive. The market is not pricing these instruments consistently. Strike offers a cumulative dividend and meaningful protections, yet it looks cheap relative to other securities in the stack. Both he and Soleil treat the entire preferred stack as still early in its repricing. They think the market has not fully adjusted to what these securities are, how overcollateralized they are, or how much their relative attractiveness could improve if rates come down.
Stretch as the Bridge
STRC gets the most attention as the most important bridge into the traditional fixed-income world. Dan explains the mechanisms designed to stabilize it around par: the variable dividend rate, the redemption option around $101, and the ability to use the ATM in a way that should help keep the product in its intended trading range. Stretch is less like a speculative Bitcoin instrument and more like a short-duration yield vehicle that can attract capital from people who would never buy MSTR common. Soleil picks up the point: each new preferred has taken time for the market to digest, but once people see what these products can do, they start wanting to know what the next flavor will be.
The Rate Catalyst
Dan thinks lower rates would be especially supportive for the preferreds, though he acknowledges multiple ways the market could interpret cuts. A 50 basis point cut could spark risk appetite, or it could initially read as economic weakness. But whatever the first-order reaction, lower short-term rates would be very helpful for products like STRC by making their spreads more compelling. He and Soleil also discuss the Fed’s increasingly flexible language on inflation and unemployment, reading it as groundwork for eventual easing. The bigger point: if the rate environment shifts lower while the preferreds are still offering unusually high spreads, the repricing could be significant.
Why the Show Matters
The episode ends with a broader reminder of why they are doing the show. Soleil says part of the point is to help investors filter signal from noise, but also to act as a kind of litmus test for the Bitcoin treasury companies themselves by highlighting what looks smart and what does not.
Main Takeaway: Bitcoin still looks constructive, but the bigger story is that digital credit, especially STRC, may be the most important bridge between Bitcoin treasury companies and the traditional bond market.